Royal LePage’s Q4 2022 Home Price Update and Market Forecast

Canada ends 2022 with modest decline in national aggregate home price; prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels

National aggregate home price posts single-digit year-over-year decline in Q4 over 2021; double-digit growth compared to 2020 and 2019 

Fourth quarter highlights:

  • National aggregate home price down 2.8% in Q4 2022 vs. the prior year; first year-over-year decline recorded in more than a decade
  • Prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: Canada’s Q4 2022 national aggregate home price has appreciated 13.8% vs. Q4 2020, and 17.2% vs. Q4 2019
  • Greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver record year-over-year aggregate price declines of 4.6% and 3.5% respectively in Q4 2022, while the Greater Montreal Area posts a gain of 2.2% in the same period
  • Less than 1% of all homes in Canada were purchased during the peak price period of February and March, 2022

TORONTO, January 13, 2023 –According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada decreased 2.8 per cent year-over-year to $757,100 in the fourth quarter of 2022; the first year-over-year decline recorded since the end of 2008 during the global financial crisis. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 2.3 per cent. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline, and the smallest decrease so far.

“Canada’s housing market closed out 2022 much as expected,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Activity levels were down sharply compared to the hypercharged state we experienced during the pandemic, with home prices flattening or showing modest declines. While the red-hot market conditions are behind us, there remains a widespread shortage of homes in Canada that cannot be offset by temporarily cooling demand. Many sidelined buyers are waiting patiently for the bottom to be revealed. Once interest rates stabilize and consumers adapt to their new normal, many of today’s sidelined buyers will be back – sooner than many analysts are predicting.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home declined 3.7 per cent year-over-year to $781,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $561,600. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Peak Price

Prices peaked in the first quarter of 2022 in most, but not all, provinces and within provinces, at different times in different regions and neighbourhoods. In addition, the price of condominiums peaked much later in the year than detached homes. Royal LePage feels quarterly comparisons by market are a fairer and more accurate representation of the change in housing values.

That said, by mid-2022, it had become common for market watchers to reference ‘declines from the peak price’ as a means of supporting the narrative that home prices were crashing. Less than 113,000 resale transactions took place in the months of February and March,[2] when the highest national benchmark prices were recorded, representing a mere 0.68 per cent of all residential dwellings in the country.[3]

“It may be headline-grabbing to say that prices are down by double digits, yet well less than one per cent of property owners completed their purchases in February or March of last year, when the pandemic-driven urgency to buy and serious housing supply shortages came together to create a final spike in prices,” said Soper. “Over time, Canadian homeowners have benefited greatly from real estate appreciation.”

While home prices were down modestly on a year-over-year basis in the final quarter of 2022, it is prudent to note that prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 were close to their peak, and home prices across the country remain well above pre-pandemic levels. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded an increase of 13.8 per cent over the same period in 2020, and 17.2 per cent over the same period in 2019.

Several important factors will continue to support home prices in Canada, including high levels of employment, strong household savings, and growing household formation, both organically from our millennial and older generation-z cohorts, and through record immigration rates.

“While demand has slowed in this rising interest rate environment, we know that many families waiting on the sidelines have the capacity to buy and have chosen not to, waiting for conditions to stabilize. Soon enough, these buyers will return to the market and will be met, once again, with the realities of low inventory and much competition,” noted Soper. “While we do not expect the same level of frenzied demand seen at the height of the pandemic, new household formation created by millennials and older gen-Zers, as well as hundreds of thousands of newcomers, will put price pressure on our limited supply of available homes.”

Last week, the government of Canada confirmed that it met its 2022 immigration target of more than 431,000 new permanent residents, the largest number of people ever welcomed in a single year in our nation’s history.[4] Ottawa says it plans to welcome up to half a million new residents each year for the next three years.

Federal Policy 

On January 1st, the federal government brought into effect a two-year ban on foreign buyers in an effort to increase supply for Canadians.

“This ban on foreign buyers will have little impact on the widespread housing shortages our nation faces. The small number of urban residential homes that would have been sold to non-residents are a drop in the bucket compared to the millions of units needed to provide adequate shelter for our citizens,” said Soper.

In December, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) confirmed that it would not be lowering the minimum qualifying rate for mortgages, out of an abundance of caution in uncertain economic times.

The stress test is an effective tool that has been successful in ensuring Canadians can withstand higher lending rates and tighter economic conditions. It is as a result of such policies that Canada has the low rate of mortgage defaults it does. Going forward, however, with interest rates likely to hold steady, Royal LePage believes this is the right time to ease up on such tight restrictions and allow more Canadians the opportunity to enter the housing market.

Interest Rates

Last month, the Bank of Canada raised its key overnight lending rate for the seventh time in a year to 4.25 per cent.[5] The central bank hinted that rate hikes may be coming to an end; welcome news for the millions of Canadians who hold variable rate mortgages and have seen their principal payments slashed or their monthly payments increase materially over the last nine months. While inflation has not come down as much or as quickly as officials might have hoped, the country’s strong job market continues to bolster the economy. Economists are divided on whether or not another rate hike is in store later this month.

Forecast

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2023 Market Survey Forecast, projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will decrease a modest 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

The first quarter of 2022 marked the height of pandemic-fueled exuberance in the Canadian housing market. As a result, the year-over-year comparison in the first quarter of 2023 will show the steepest decline in prices. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price is expected to flatten in Q2, before beginning to modestly recover over the remainder of the year. At the same time, year-over-year comparisons are expected to show progressively less price decline as the year goes on.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area 

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area decreased 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,068,500 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA decreased 2.7 per cent; the third consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,325,900 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.7 per cent to $683,100 during the same period.

“For the first time in several years, the GTA real estate market showed a return to more normal seasonal trends, with activity levels down heading into the start of winter and the holiday period,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Rising interest rates have poured cold water on housing demand in the region, compared to most of 2020 and all of 2021, which were extremely active and recorded exuberant price gains.”

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.5 per cent year-over-year to $1,086,700 in the fourth quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.0 per cent to $1,517,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.2 per cent to $681,500.

“While home prices in Toronto and the surrounding area have come down from their peak, affordability remains a real challenge for many in Canada’s second-most expensive city. Once interest rates stabilize, I believe many buyer hopefuls who have been sitting on the sidelines will return to the market.” said Yolevski. “With record-breaking immigration levels reached last year and similar figures expected in 2023, additional demand will be placed on a region struggling with a chronic shortage of inventory, whether from newcomers themselves or investors looking to take advantage of a boost in rental demand.”

Yolevski added that, with a record number of condominium completions in the GTA expected this year, supply in the rental market could get a much needed boost.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022 

Greater Montreal Area 

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $544,300 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.9 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $601,500 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium rose 3.8 per cent $445,100 during the same period.

“The fourth quarter price data is encouraging as we begin the new year,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage for the Quebec region. “The dips observed between the second and the third quarters were much larger than those observed between the third and fourth, in all Greater Montreal markets except for the South Shore, which tells us that the price correction eased during the last quarter of the year and home prices are stabilizing.”

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.4 per cent year-over-year to $646,600 in the fourth quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.9 per cent to $1,036,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.4 per cent to $527,100.

“Quebec’s regions and suburban areas attracted an unprecedented number of buyers during the pandemic, pushing the market value of properties to all-time highs,” added St-Pierre. “Since the price correction is reaching the regional markets later than in Greater Montreal, we expect that the trend observed over the past three years will be reversed, and Montreal will once again see a greater demand than other regions. In Greater Montreal, we should see price stabilization followed by modest to moderate growth once interest rates start to come back down, possibly at the end of 2023 or in the first half of 2024.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will decrease 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022 

Greater Vancouver 

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $1,208,900 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 3.3 per cent; the third consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 3.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,643,900 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.0 per cent to $731,700 during the same period.

“Activity levels in Greater Vancouver over the last few months have been typical for the time of year; something we have not seen since before the pandemic real estate boom. While many buyers are still waiting for a price floor to reveal itself, transactions are being completed, with some pockets of the region more active than others,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “With inventory still very tight, prices have not dropped drastically. I believe a large part of the decline is already behind us.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,345,600 in the fourth quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.0 per cent to $2,397,800, while the median price of a condominium dipped 0.5 per cent to $784,400.

“Demand for housing has slowed, but we are edging closer to normal levels. I expect we will see many buyers begin returning to the market in the spring and summer, once interest rates stabilize and both buyers and sellers adjust to the new normal,” said Ryalls. “When buyers come back to the table, sellers will follow.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022 

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $719,900 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 3.3 per cent; the third consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7 per cent year-over-year to $826,300 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium decreased 8.1 per cent to $383,700 during the same period.

“Real estate in Ottawa is trending back toward pre-pandemic norms, resulting in healthier market conditions for all. Home prices continued to decline from pandemic highs in the fourth quarter as inventory showed some improvement,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record, Royal LePage Team Realty. “The slowdown in the market is partly due to a chicken or egg scenario – many buyers are holding out for a bargain as prices continue to dip, and some sellers have refrained from listing their homes as they wait for purchaser demand to rise. Although many buyers have chosen to put their purchase plans on hold while they wait to see what interest rates do next, we know that there is a lot of pent-up demand waiting in the wings, especially in the first-time buyer segment. I expect that demand will return once interest rates stabilize.”

Ralph noted that homes in suburban regions surrounding downtown Ottawa have proven to be more resilient to price declines, as retirees and first-time buyers move to the city’s outskirts in search of more space and affordability. Should interest rates stabilize during the first few months of 2023, Ralph anticipates that more sellers will list their homes.

“All signs are pointing to a more balanced market in 2023,” said Ralph. “Interest rates and inflation have been key indicators of real estate activity of late. A levelling off or drop in borrowing rates will boost consumer confidence, resulting in an increase in activity in the Ottawa market.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022 

Calgary 

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 3.9 per cent year-over-year to $599,100 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.7 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $686,500 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.0 per cent to $233,700 during the same period.

“As a result of low supply and a lack of new listings, home prices in Calgary continue to rise year-over-year, despite overall activity in the region having been lower in the fourth quarter than the same time a year prior; a period of higher-than-normal activity,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “The increased cost of living and rising interest rates have dampened demand somewhat, but a steady flow of buyers remain active in the market. Demand from out-of-province buyers has been consistent, as those searching for affordability in a city where their dollar will stretch further, and can afford them a larger property, continue to flock to the region.”

Lyall added that the city’s healthy job market and strong economy continue to be a major draw for young people from across the country. As a result, home prices in Calgary have proven more resilient than in other major cities, which have recorded price declines since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates.

“I believe a brisk spring market is on the horizon. Many sidelined buyers have grown tired of waiting, and will return to the market at the first sign of stabilization in lending rates. Once demand picks up, sellers will feel more confident to list their homes, bringing some much-needed inventory onto the market,” said Lyall.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022

Edmonton 

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased modestly by 0.3 per cent year-over-year to $427,100 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 4.1 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.1 per cent year-over-year to $464,500 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium remained flat, increasing 0.3 per cent to $194,100 during the same period.

“Activity in Edmonton’s real estate market was relatively muted in the final months of 2022, as a return to seasonal winter trends and a shortage of supply kept buyers at bay,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Unlike Canada’s major urban centres, which have experienced more pronounced price swings over the last year, home prices in Edmonton remain stable. I expect that will continue throughout the first part of this year.”

Shearer noted that the region remains a popular destination for out-of-province buyers and anticipates this trend will continue, especially when interest rates stabilize and competition in popular markets in Ontario and British Columbia tightens once again.

“Inventory in popular neighbourhoods remains low, and new construction has slowed with the increased cost of materials and labour,” said Shearer. “I expect tighter market conditions in the spring and summer when activity levels pick up again.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax decreased 3.3 per cent year-over-year to $469,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 4.4 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $528,100 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.4 per cent to $394,100 during the same period.

“Home sales in the Halifax region remain comparatively low. Competition began to diminish in late summer and the trend continued into the fourth quarter, as buyers and sellers held off on making a move in this rising interest rate environment to reevaluate their personal finances,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Buyers with the luxury of time have been waiting for property prices to drop further, while sellers are waiting in the wings for buyers to come back to the table. This market gridlock is causing a slowdown in activity, but I predict that this trend will subside in the spring, if the interest rate hikes slow or come to an end.”

Honsberger noted that reduced supply, which remains depleted at slightly under two months’ worth and has decreased to as little as half a month of inventory at times, has been proportional to lower market demand. As the spring market approaches, however, he expects that both supply and consumer demand will rise.

“I imagine we will see the return of a brisk spring market, but quieter than what we experienced in 2022. I think that many people are just about done waiting,” said Honsberger. “I believe property prices will hold up well in Halifax when purchasers move off the sidelines.”

Honsberger added that the city’s growing population will continue to sustain market demand.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022

Winnipeg 

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 1.1 per cent year-over-year to $361,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 3.1 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased modestly by 0.8 per cent year-over-year to $393,800 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 7.7 per cent to $251,600 during the same period.

“While home prices in Winnipeg have come down since their peak, the region has fared better than Canada’s major urban centres since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates last March. Price gains during the pandemic real estate boom were more moderate in the city compared to other parts of the country, and so too is the recovery,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “We believe we have reached, or come close, to the bottom of price declines, and we’ve been easing into a gradual return to normal seasonal activity.”

Froese added that a low supply of available housing stock has also helped to keep price declines in check.

“While sales are down compared to historical norms, there is little new inventory hitting the market right now. I expect demand will pick up again in the spring once buyers are confident that interest rates have stabilized. And, supply will follow soon after,” said Froese. “Buyers may have to adjust their budgets, but those who are motivated to enter the market or move up will be eager to do so before competition increases again.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will decrease 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2022
Royal LePage Forecast Chart:rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2022

Regina 

The aggregate price of a home in Regina remained flat, decreasing just 0.1 per cent year-over-year to $359,600 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 2.8 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased modestly by 0.3 per cent year-over-year to $388,800 in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.2 per cent to $216,900 during the same period.

“As is typical in the winter months, activity slowed through the final quarter of 2022 and the start of the new year, and is likely to remain that way until spring,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “Weather permitting, demand could pick up as early as the end of February or beginning of March, although I expect this spring will be less vibrant than the last two years. The increased cost of borrowing and everyday goods has softened demand in the area.”

Duggleby noted that prices in the city’s rental market have been climbing steadily and rapidly, as many would-be buyers have been priced out of the resale market.

“While single-family homes have historically been the most popular housing type in Regina, I expect a boost in demand for condominiums will drive price appreciation in the segment over the coming year. More affordable entry-level properties will be in high demand when sidelined buyers – specifically first-time buyers – return to the market with reduced budgets and facing higher mortgage costs.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will decrease 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022.

For more information please get in touch by email at alasdair@royallepage.ca or call my direct line at 519-590-6118.

For more interesting articles and videos please visit;

Website, http://www.alasdair.ca

Free Home Evaluation, http://www.freehomeevaluations.ca

Blog, http://www.alasdairtherealtor.com

Facebook,http://www.facebook.com/FreeHomeEvaluationsInKitchenerWaterloo

YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZv6wE5cUAE4BTBbtMREFOQ

Advertisement

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.